Monday, August 22, 2011

update - deleting the chaff

Hunting around for information on the Revenue of the companies missing from google shows that GEN (genesis research) is not in the biofuel sector as included in the ASX list, but in fact a research company with gene thearapy technology.

I've deleted it from the list.

Make that 33 companies.

If you're interested in that stuff, you can find them at : http://www.genesis.co.nz 

Sunday, August 21, 2011

How to divide up the index?

This is where I am way out of my depth. Also where the industry starts to get a little mysterious. You probably learn this in first term of business school, but who's got.time for that. If you knew nothing, what would you do?

Buy one share of every company.
This would be easy. The cost would equal to the sum of the share prices and the weighting would be the share price divided by the price. The trouble with this is that not every company has the same valuation on their shares - as I understand it you can raise the same amount of capital, but offer a different number of shares, 10 $10 shares is the same as 100 $1 shares, still a company "worth" $100, but with fewer investors. But it would totally stuff an index based on the above principle. From our list we have the following proportion of each company:

32% of MBT a biodiesel company
21% of SLX solar and uranium enrichment
13% or ORE a lithium producer
7% of RDX, a battery producer
and less the 3% of the other 30 companies.

last 12 months 25.11 - 14.36 (-43%)

Buy $1 of every company
Here the cost would be equal to the number of companies in the index - $34 or any multiple thereof and the weighting of every company would be exactly the same - in our case 3%. This might make a kind of sense, since you are putting a each-way bet on every company in the index, but it's not how index funds are calculated.

last 12 months 19178-10361 (-45%)

Buy based on the size of the company
The theory behind this method should be that the bigger the company, the more likely they are to succeed, which seems fair enough, even if you would miss out on the rising stars.

This can be done in a number of ways - I don't know how I know, but maybe through listening to the news I know about market capitalisation, how much a company is worth. It's the share price times the number of shares.

Market Cap
This is easy to do, but it also leads to some interesting results, with a range of spread similar to what we saw if we just bought one share in each company.

Silex (SLX) becomes our biggest holding (26%) because it is the biggest company in the index
Infigen (IFN) is number two at 11%
Orecobre is third at 10%.
There is nothing else greater that 7%

last 12 months 16424 - 10338 (-38%)

Revenue
Of the 34 companies, google lists the revenue of all but 6 of the companies. There is one with a negative revenue. I have no way of validating this data so I am going to have to do some more work on this. A quick check shows that what Google shows as revenue for CBD Energy appears to be 6-month income according to a statement released via ASX.

I'll come back to this when I have more info - it's relevant because the leading minds declare that share price (and hence market capitalisation) skew your index towards the popular shares, which are not necessarily where the growth is. There is a really great example of this in a chart of a fundamental index against a market capitalisation which shows the growth and contraction of the tech-sector during the bubble and burst of 2001. Using a fundamental index eliminates this issue because the companies underlying 'fundamentals didn't grow at the same pace as the share prices, so the fundamental index would not have picked them up, unlike a capitalisation index.

see: http://au.wiley.com/WileyCDA/WileyTitle/productCd-047027784X,descCd-description.html

Buy based on the potential of the company.
Here I guess you could do a broad analysis of the profit, EBITDA, P/E or the change in share price in recent times. I'm not going to spend any time with this at the moment as it doesn't seem to be the most relevant for an index type fund.

For reference, here is how S&P develop the ASX indices... LINK


worldwide energy production

Our starting list

MBT Mission Newenergy Limited
ARW Australian Renewable Fuels Ltd.
AEB Algae Tec Ltd
SWW Solverdi Worldwide Limited
SBI Sterling Biofuels International Limited
COZ CO2 Group Limited
CCF Carbon Conscious Limited
WAG Wag Limited
WAS Wasabi Energy Limited
GDY Geodynamics Limited 
EHR Earth Heat Resources Ltd
PTR Petratherm Ltd
GRK Green Rock Energy Limited
HRL Hot Rock Ltd
PAX Panax Geothermal Ltd.
GER Greenearth Energy Ltd.
KEN KUTh Energy Limited
TEY Torrens Energy Limited
GHT Geothermal Resources Limited
DYE Dyesol Ltd.
CBD CBD Energy Limited
QTM Quantum Energy Limited
SOO Solco Limited
EVM EnviroMission Limited
GXY Galaxy Resources Limited
ORE Orocobre Limited
CFU Ceramic Fuel Cells Limited
RFX RedFlow Ltd
EDE Eden Energy Ltd.
CWE Carnegie Wave Energy Limited
IFN Infigen Energy

ON THE FENCE:
SLX Silex Systems Limited

JAT Jatoil Limited



OUT:

GEN GENESIS FPO NZ (deleted 22 Aug - R&D in Gene Research)

Saturday, August 20, 2011

How do we size up?

I'm not sure if size counts - it would help stabilise things, but our starting list just didn't include larger companies. And what do we compare against, what is our 'benchmark' from an investment point of view?
(remember we now have 34 companies with a total capitalisation of $2B)

Australian Index Investments offers an energy index (here) with just 20 companies. Although they all sit in the S&P ASX200, which means the companies range from $0.17B to $140B (the range of the ASX200, I haven't looked at the companies in that much detail), which means that the footprint is at least $4B.

The 100 ASX Small Ords index companies run from about 40M to $3000M, with a median of $360M. You can find all this out at S&P.

Compared with the two indexes mentioned at the start of this blog, our fund is pretty small : $2B against $11B or $47B. And compared with the ASX Small Ords our fund is pretty small: a median company size of $22M.

Benchmark?
It would be pretty meaningless to try to 'beat' the ASX200 when none of the companies are in that league. If renewable energy is the grow area it should be, then the clean energy index should significantly perform any generic index, sadly though, at the moment renewables aren't the star in an investors portfolio. Part of the reason I started writing this was because I believe in the growth.

For the meantime, I'll check it against the ASX200 (XJO) and ASX Small Ords (XSO).

Oh, and also the ASX200 Energy sector (XEJ)



Thursday, August 18, 2011

An index with less than 1% of the market???

What kind of index has only 0.8% of the market capitalisation?

Not this one.

After a quick look through the companies listed in the ASX cleantech factsheet, there is no way I am leaving them all in. But this does raise some interesting questions. An index is not supposed to be selective, it should include all the companies in the sector, even if they look like dogs. But I feel compelled to put a filter on the companies involved. This is really hard to describe up front, since I wasn't really sure what I was looking for, but I think the key is energy - clean energy. I'll try now to summarise why I'm excluding some things, but sadly some of this is going to happen behind the scenes.

First off is the biggest company in the list, SIMS. They take metal scrap and turn it back in to metal for industrial purposes. That is really important, and most likely really profitable, since they've been doing it since 1917. Is recycling important - you bet, do we need to do it better and more frequently - yep. Is it part of my clean tech index - nope. For ease, I'll drop the entire WASTE category.

That makes 63 companies, Capitalisation of AU$3.2B

Next is WATER. From a brief look, these companies are about looking after our water-based environments. Not really about energy.

Gone. 57.

OTHER? Gone. 53. (These are mainly investment firms, who hold stock in the sames stocks anyway)

VEHICLES? This seems to be a small number of companies developing better engine technologies. OK, but not energy.

50.

ENVIRONMENT? That sounds good, but a quick look shows these are really engineering consultants who have a branch in the 'environmental' consulting, which as I understand is just telling mining and development companies that they are meeting minimum environmental criteria, not really making anything better.

GONE. 45.

BIOGAS? This is only two companies, larger companies making energy from diesel for remote areas. I'm not a fan - why not go solar? Gone. 43.

BIOFUEL? This is one of those grey areas - but it seems they are making diesel from renewable sources, so let's keep it in just to give us a fair range. The trucks and trains will probably run on diesel for a while, let's make it from aussie farms.

CARBON? Perhaps, I'm not sure about this one, at some point we are going to have to work on offsetting the current pollution while we develop the alternatives.... Also, there has to be a pop in this sector when the carbon tax comes in, so lets keep these three companies in.

EFFICIENCY? I like some of this sector, but really, which companies on the ASX are not engaged in making what they do more efficient? That's a fundamental to running a business. It would be different if they were specifically engaged in making homes or vehicles more energy efficient, but I don't believe this is the sector the ASX is talking about. For now it's GONE.

That leaves just 34 companies. AU$2079M or 0.2% of the ASX.

I don't quite believe it. I'm going to have to come back to this, but I can say it takes a lot of time to look through to see what companies do, and if you were paying attention, you'll see I really don't know what I'm talking about here. All I've done is look at 1-5 of the companies summary in Google Finance and see if I like what they say. I also believe that some of the bigger companies could go in here, maybe Origin energy? But I'd have to think a bit more about that.

For now, here's what we've got left:

Solar                                 6 685
Storage & Fuel Cells         5 679
Wind                                 1 267                    
Geothermal                      11 212
Biofuel                               7 104
Wave                                 1 68
Carbon                               3 64

Total                                  34 2079

So solar is the biggest sector by capitalisation, but geothermal is much bigger in terms of companies.

Solar is only the largest because of the inclusion of Silex, who recently acquired "Solar Systems", a great company with reflecting concentrating solar technology. Other than that acquisition, the bulk of their business is in uranium enrichment for the nuclear power industry. GULP. Take them out and you drop out another $500M and one of the most promising solar companies around. I'm leaving them in. For now.





Tuesday, August 16, 2011

What would I put in the index?

Well, the sad fact is, despite my 'passion' for green technologies, I really don't know that much about the business world around me. Who's doing what? Of course I know a few examples that have turned up on my radar, but not enough to base an index on.

Thankfully, ASX makes it easy for you: CleanTech Fact Sheet. This was updated in June 2011, but there's no history of previous versions, so I have no idea if it'll be around for long. I've downloaded a copy and had a look.

There are 76 Companies listed, each with it's market capitalisation and a description of the market segment it is in, they break up as follows:

Name # Cap $M
Waste 13 4911
Geothermal 11 212
Efficiency 9 356
Biofuel 7 104
Water 6 59
Solar 6 685
Storage & Fuel Cells 5 679
Environment 5 124
Other 4 34
Carbon 3 64
Vehicles 3 28
Biogas 2 544
Wind 1 267
Wave 1 68

I was surprised by this list. There are around 2000 companies listed on the ASX and only 76 of those can be called clean tech. ($8B out of $1000B) And of those, by far the biggest segment is waste recycling. SIMS alone makes up nearly half the value of this group.

I'm not sure I agree with the ASX. It's a good place to start, but my green-tech index is going to have to have a tighter screen...

Now I see why there were so few companies in the other indexes.

Are there any ASX indexes for renewable energy?

What does Wikipedia say?

YES!

But it's a qualified yes. It just gives one:

run by Bakers Investment Group, who also run a Coal industry index, what?
since 2006
118 Companies
$47B
compared against ASX300

A bit of web surfing and I also come up with:

since 2007
75 companies
$11B
ASX200 + ASX Small ords.

Seems OK, they post a monthly report and have annual charts. Looks like it's a good time to invest - from a peak of around 140 in 2007, the index is now sitting around 50, lower even than during 2008-09 (PDF)

also the Ethical Investor magazine has it's own index

Ethinvest Environmental Share Price index.
since 1996
40 companies.

Sadly this one requires membership and doesn't make it clear what or how the index is created. It's from an interesting web site / magazine, which you might be interested in if you are reading this : Ethical Investor

How hard can it be? Online tools seem pretty good these days, maybe I can make my own. Greg's green-tech index. Let's have a go... if only to learn a bit more about the sharemarket and green companies.






A good time to start

If I had a million dollars.....

I'd use it to help people who are doing things I believe in.

Like building solar power plants, designing greener homes, commercialising the green technologies that I've been reading about for years. I started the project of doing that a few years ago when I had some cash and took it to Ethical Investment Advisors to find a good place to stick it. Now I have a small amount of money invested with a bunch of anonymous companies who are trying to pick the winners on the stock market.

They're not doing so well.

But they still charge me high rates to do it. Recently I stumbled on the recently opened Climate advocacy trust, which invests in the ASX200 and acts as a shareholder activist to try to push issues of climate change into Australia's bigger companies. They charge me a bit more, but I'm glad they are doing something good with the money while I am tied up working.

I like the concept of Index funds -just accept the nominal returns of the market and reduce your costs to a minimum. It sounds reasonable and there are plenty of comments in the media about fund managers not beating the market. However, index funds generally miss the point of my aims, they focus on sectors or company size - I want to put my money in the green revolution, can I put my money in a green index?

That is the start of this blog...



PS. This is not a financial advice page - I am not qualified or certified to give any advice on any financial matter. I'm also not qualified to talk about renewable energy - everything you see here is my own personal opinion. I'd like to thank Divacultura that we live in a nanny state where such warnings are necessary and I'll give you my opinion that her blog is fun. It's here: divacultura